Texas Primary Results: Narrow Polling Margins Reveal Deep Divides in Senate Fight
The latest Emerson College Polling snapshot has texas primary results showing razor-thin margins: State Rep. James Talarico holds a narrow edge over U. S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary while Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn sit close in the Republican contest. The survey of likely primary voters, conducted February 26–27, 2026 (ET), makes clear that turnout patterns and demographic splits will likely determine who advances.
What do the Texas Primary Results show about the Democratic Senate contest?
The Emerson survey finds Talarico leading Crockett 52% to 47% among likely Democratic primary voters. The margin is within the poll’s credibility interval, and subgroups show markedly different preferences. Talarico carries white voters 71% to 29% and leads Hispanic voters 60% to 39%; Crockett leads female voters 51% to 48% and commands Black voters 80% to 18%. Voters under 40 prefer Talarico by ten points, and voters in their 40s to 60s are nearly split. Democratic-affiliated voters are evenly divided, with 50% for Crockett and 49% for Talarico; independent identifiers break for Talarico by a large margin.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, emphasizes the practical consequence of those splits: “Talarico holds a sizable advantage among voters who voted early, 58% to 41%, while Crockett leads the Election Day vote, 50% to 39%, suggesting the outcome will depend on which group shows up in larger numbers by the end of Tuesday. ” The poll’s sample for likely Democratic primary voters is n=850 with a credibility interval of +/-3. 3 percent, and results for demographic subsets carry larger intervals as sample sizes fall.
Who is leading in the Republican primary and could a runoff be forced?
On the Republican side, the survey places Paxton at 40%, Cornyn at 36% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%. Early- and Election Day splits again shape the picture: Cornyn leads among early voters 38% to 34%, while Paxton holds a 12-point advantage with likely Election Day voters, 44% to 32%. Kimball notes the arithmetic that points to an unsettled outcome: “With Rep. Hunt picking up 18% among early voters, his presence in the race appears likely to hold Paxton and Cornyn under the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. ”
Demographic patterns further differentiate the two: Cornyn performs strongest with Republican primary voters who have college degrees and with voters over 70, while Paxton’s support is stronger among voters under 50 and in their 50s and 60s. Paxton also draws relatively more support from 2024 Trump voters, while Cornyn performs better among those who supported Harris or another candidate in 2024.
What does this mean for turnout, party dynamics and the path forward?
The poll’s headline numbers and subgroup breakdowns point to two looming realities. First, early voting behavior versus Election Day turnout is a decisive variable in both party contests. Second, sharply different racial, gender and age coalitions are shaping each primary: the Democratic contest shows stark racial divides in support between Talarico and Crockett; the Republican contest features generational and ideological splits that keep both top contenders below an outright majority in the survey.
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted February 26–27, 2026 (ET). The Republican sample size is n=547 with a margin of error of +/-4. 1 percent. The poll statement underscores that subgroup results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores and a 95% confidence interval.
Back where the snapshot began — with the split between early and Election Day voters — the final outcome now looks like a function of who turns out. If early voters dominate, Talarico and Cornyn perform more strongly; if Election Day turnout surges, Crockett and Paxton gain ground. That arithmetic leaves open the immediate prospect of runoffs and ensures the coming days will be decisive for campaigns and voters alike.
(Image alt: texas primary results shown in Emerson College Polling demographic breakdown)
