Gavin Newsom succession as June primary nears: Democrats urge trailing hopefuls to drop out
gavin newsom’s open seat has prompted California Democratic leaders to urge trailing hopefuls to withdraw from the crowded gubernatorial field to avoid a November general election without a Democrat on the ballot.
What Happens After Gavin Newsom? — Current state of play
The California Democratic Party chair, Rusty Hicks, wrote an open letter asking candidates who do not have a viable path to the general election not to file for the primary. Party officials fear that a large number of Democratic entrants, combined with the state’s top‑two primary system that advances the two highest vote‑getters regardless of party, could split the Democratic vote and allow two Republicans to advance to November.
Polling referenced by party officials shows the field tightly clustered: an Emerson College poll placed the top five candidates within eight percentage points, while a Public Policy Institute of California survey put them within four percentage points. Two Republicans—Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco—have polled near the top of the race in some surveys, while Democrats including Katie Porter, Tom Steyer and Eric Swalwell are competitive but have not broken clear of the pack. Party leaders note the unusual dynamics for a state that has not seen an open gubernatorial contest of this breadth in decades.
What If Democrats Stay Divided? — Forces reshaping the contest
Three structural and political forces are driving the intervention by Democratic leaders. First, the top‑two primary system increases the risk that a fractured majority can be undercut by consolidated minority blocs. Second, the crowded Democratic field has splintered party support—Tom Steyer has spent heavily and other contenders are drawing single‑digit shares—making it harder for any one Democrat to emerge as a clear frontrunner. Third, national stakes heighten the local calculus: party officials point to the implications for turnout in down‑ballot House races and the broader effort to counter policies from the White House, which they say raises the cost of a misstep in California.
Rusty Hicks framed his appeal as a responsibility to prevent a self‑inflicted loss, and the party’s national chair, Ken Martin, warned that Democrats must avoid actions that would depress turnout or hand an advantage to Republican contenders. The dynamics have prompted immediate pushback from some trailing Democrats who view the request as unfairly targeting non‑front‑runners and candidates of color; a number of them have signaled plans to remain in the race.
What Should Happen Next? — Scenarios and steps for the party
Three realistic scenarios outline the near‑term paths the contest can take.
- Best case: A small number of Democrats suspend campaigns and consolidate endorsements around one or two nominees, producing a competitive Democrat‑vs‑Republican November and preserving turnout in down‑ballot races.
- Most likely: Several marginal Democrats remain in the field, leaving the top‑of‑ticket outcome uncertain but avoiding a complete collapse; November turnout is uneven and some congressional races become more competitive.
- Most challenging: The Democratic vote fractures sufficiently that two Republicans finish atop the primary ballot, producing an all‑GOP general election and depressing Democratic turnout with potential downstream losses for House targets.
Given these scenarios, party leaders have set an explicit expectation that campaigns assess viability and, if they cannot show meaningful progress toward the primary, suspend efforts and consider endorsements by mid‑April; a filing deadline approaches ahead of the June primary. The calculus for candidates will balance individual electoral ambitions against broader party risk, with outside spending—most visibly from Tom Steyer—already reshaping campaign capability and reach.
For voters and operatives, the immediate imperative is clarity: assess which campaigns can consolidate enough support to prevent a split outcome and make strategic decisions quickly. The decision calculus and any withdrawals over the coming weeks will determine whether California avoids an all‑Republican November or faces the difficult consequences of a divided Democratic field as the state moves to replace gavin newsom.
