Su Mudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar Pick, 03/07/2026 Predictions UFC 326 Odds
The matchup between su mudaerji and Jesus Aguilar at UFC 326 represents a clear stylistic crossroads: a rangy, high-output southpaw with a pronounced reach advantage against an opponent who leans on takedowns and finishing attempts. This fight closes the Early Prelims card and the available numbers frame it as a contest of distance control versus grappling initiation.
What Happens When Su Mudaerji Uses Range Against Aguilar?
Physical and striking metrics heavily favor Su Mudaerji. He stands 5’8″ with a 72″ reach and fights southpaw, while Aguilar measures 5’4″ with a 62″ reach and fights orthodox. On the feet, Mudaerji connects at a higher clip: the figures show 4. 48 significant strikes per minute for Mudaerji versus 2. 65 for Aguilar, and Mudaerji’s significant strike accuracy is listed at 52% compared with Aguilar’s 40%. Defensively, Mudaerji absorbs about 2. 39 significant strikes per minute and deflects roughly 60% of incoming significant strikes; Aguilar’s defensive rate shows he takes about 1. 85 significant strikes per minute and stops about 62% of strikes.
- Height / Reach: Mudaerji 5’8″ / 72″ vs Aguilar 5’4″ / 62″
- Significant strikes per minute: Mudaerji 4. 48 vs Aguilar 2. 65
- Significant strike accuracy: Mudaerji 52% vs Aguilar 40%
- Defense (significant strikes taken/min): Mudaerji 2. 39 vs Aguilar 1. 85
Given those margins, if Mudaerji can maintain distance and leverage the reach differential, the bout projects toward a stand-up decision outcome. Historical outcome patterns support that possibility: Mudaerji’s recent UFC results include two straight decision victories and most of his Octagon wins have come by decision.
What If the Fight Goes to the Ground?
Aguilar’s clearest path is through grappling. The available takedown numbers indicate Aguilar averages significantly more takedowns than Mudaerji: one set of figures lists Aguilar at 1. 64 takedowns per 15 minutes while Mudaerji is at 0. 16. Other detail shows Aguilar completes takedowns on roughly 31% of attempts and defends 48% of takedown attempts against him; Mudaerji completes on about 11% of attempts and defends near 71% of takedowns. Aguilar also attempts finishes more frequently per 15 minutes (about 1. 4) than Mudaerji (about 0. 6).
If Aguilar closes the distance successfully and converts takedowns, his chance to pressure for a finish or win rounds rises. That outcome hinges on Aguilar beating Mudaerji’s reported 71% takedown defense rate; if Mudaerji imposes his takedown stuffing and keeps the fight upright, Aguilar’s path narrows considerably.
What Are the Betting and Outcome Scenarios?
Moneylines observed in pre-fight listings place Mudaerji between roughly -205 and -200 while Aguilar sits at +170. Market pricing also showed an expectation that judges are involved: one line noted -160 for a decision and +120 for a finish. Below are three scenario projections rooted in the stated metrics.
- Best case for Mudaerji: Controls range with jab and straights, limits takedown attempts with 71% takedown defense, and racks a high-volume striking output to earn a unanimous decision.
- Most likely: A largely striking-led fight where Mudaerji’s reach and accuracy produce damage and point control; Aguilar manages occasional entries but fails to sustain prolonged control—result favors Mudaerji by decision with a finish remaining a live underdog outcome.
- Most challenging for Mudaerji: Aguilar negates the reach early, converts takedowns at a higher clip, and turns the bout into grappling and ground pressure that leads to a late stoppage or judges’ win for Aguilar.
Betting lines reflecting Mudaerji as the favorite mirror the statistical tilt, but the grappling differential keeps Aguilar a meaningful upset possibility. Readers should weigh the reach-and-strike advantage against the takedown and finishing rates when forming a view.
Final takeaway: this matchup is a textbook contest of distance management versus takedown conversion; expect the path to victory to follow which fighter can impose their game plan most consistently—su mudaerji
