Forget Lockheed Martin. This Defense Stock Will Double by 2028: Lmt Stock and the 63.8 Billion Euro Backlog
Rheinmetall has become a test case for how fast defense demand can translate into growth, and lmt stock sits at the center of that comparison. The debate is not only about valuation; it is about whether Europe’s defense buildout can keep producing orders at a pace that justifies the market’s optimism. With 2025 revenue of 9. 94 billion euros, a record backlog of 63. 8 billion euros, and 2026 sales guidance of 14 billion to 14. 5 billion euros, the company’s numbers point to a business moving into a higher gear.
Why the backlog matters now
The immediate significance lies in the scale of the order pipeline. Rheinmetall’s backlog reached 63. 8 billion euros in full-year 2025, up 36% from the prior year, and it is expected to more than double to 135 billion euros by the end of 2026. That matters because defense revenue often follows procurement cycles with a lag. A backlog of that size signals that demand is not a one-quarter story but a multi-year run of deliveries and production planning.
This is where lmt stock becomes part of a broader market contrast. Lockheed Martin trades at roughly 26 times trailing earnings, while growth expectations for its revenue remain near 5% annually. In the context of a defense sector that investors often view as stable rather than explosive, the market appears to be rewarding backlog visibility more than broad brand recognition.
Rheinmetall’s growth profile versus the market’s expectations
Rheinmetall’s 2025 performance shows the scale of the shift. Revenue rose 29% year over year to 9. 94 billion euros, while operating result climbed 33% to 1. 84 billion euros. For 2026, the company guided for sales of 14 billion to 14. 5 billion euros, implying growth of 40% to 45%, with an operating margin target of about 19%. Those figures are not just strong; they suggest a manufacturing base being pulled by sustained demand rather than speculative enthusiasm.
The comparison with lmt stock is useful because it highlights two different defense narratives. One is a mature contractor with a large backlog and steady demand. The other is a supplier positioned for a structural procurement cycle in Europe, where the earnings outlook is still accelerating. Rheinmetall’s long-term appeal depends on whether that acceleration can continue without friction in supply chains, capacity, or contract timing.
NATO spending and Europe’s autonomy push
The larger backdrop is NATO’s commitment to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a move that creates a decade-long procurement mandate. Europe’s defense posture is also shifting toward greater autonomy, with the region seeking capabilities less dependent on the U. S. That combination matters because it increases the odds of sustained domestic and regional procurement, especially for Germany’s land systems and ammunition production base.
European defense expenditure reached an estimated 2. 1% of EU member states’ GDP in 2025, up from 1. 6% in 2023. That is still far from the 5% target, which means the runway for new orders remains long. In this setting, lmt stock may remain a benchmark for defense-sector investors, but Rheinmetall’s core advantage is that it sits directly in the spending wave tied to Europe’s rearmament priorities.
What the numbers suggest about durability
The strongest argument for Rheinmetall is not only growth, but the durability implied by the order book. A record backlog combined with sales guidance above 40% growth suggests management sees demand as persistent rather than temporary. At the same time, the comparison with lmt stock shows why valuation discipline still matters: a strong backlog does not automatically create room for further upside if growth slows or the market has already priced it in.
That is also why the current setup looks different from a simple momentum trade. Rheinmetall has returned 1, 661% over five years, yet it was up only 1. 84% over the past year and down 7. 91% year to date. For a stock with that kind of long-term history, a quieter period can signal consolidation rather than exhaustion. The question is whether the next leg is already being set by the scale of defense demand now flowing through Europe.
Expert perspective and regional consequences
Two institutional facts shape the view from here: NATO’s 5% spending commitment and Europe’s push for industrial autonomy. Together they create a policy environment that favors suppliers with proven production capacity. Rheinmetall’s positioning as Germany’s premier land systems and ammunition manufacturer places it squarely inside that trend.
For the wider region, the implications go beyond one company. If Europe continues scaling defense manufacturing to support Ukraine and strengthen its own security posture, procurement could remain elevated for years. That makes lmt stock a useful comparison point, but not necessarily the most compelling growth case in the current cycle. The central issue is whether Europe’s defense rearmament becomes a sustained industrial program rather than a temporary response.
Rheinmetall’s numbers suggest the answer may already be taking shape, but the next test is whether the backlog turns into revenue fast enough to sustain the pace investors now expect from lmt stock comparisons and Europe’s broader defense shift.
