Glasnow Carries 2.46 ERA Into Marlins Rubber Match

The Marlins reach Dodger Stadium for the rubber match with Tyler Glasnow and Sandy Alcantara lined up as the expected starters. Los Angeles is trying to answer after losing Monday evening, and the matchup leans on two arms that have driven the series discussion from the start.

Glasnow's 2.46 ERA

Glasnow brings a 2.46 ERA into the afternoon game, and the Dodgers have covered the run line in three of his five outings this season. He blanked the Giants 3-0 in his last start, working eight scoreless innings, and his day-game split has been even sharper with a 1.29 ERA across two afternoon outings.

Those numbers give Los Angeles a clear lane in a series finale that has already tilted toward offense when these teams meet. Seven of the last eight meetings between the Dodgers and Marlins went Over the total, and Monday's 2-1 game was the first time the Under cashed since 2024.

Alcantara and the Dodgers bats

Alcantara entered at 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA, but the Dodgers have handled him well. They were hitting.324 off him across 105 at-bats, and Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez were all hitting at least.286 against the Miami right-hander.

That is the friction point in this matchup: Miami has the pitcher with the better road warning signs, but Los Angeles has the deeper recent edge at the plate. Alcantara had given up 10 runs in just two appearances away from Miami, while the Dodgers had also covered the run line in 25 of their last 50 home games, a stretch worth plus 2.8 units and a 5% ROI.

Dodgers home edge

At Dodger Stadium, the series finale puts recent form and matchup history in the same frame. The Dodgers have been strong enough in Glasnow's outings to keep pressure on the number, and the Marlins have to deal with a lineup that has already shown damage against Alcantara. For Los Angeles, the path is simple: hold the run line trend at home and turn one more solid start into a series win.