John Cornyn outraises Paxton fourfold in Texas runoff
john cornyn entered the Texas Senate runoff stretch with a fundraising edge over Ken Paxton, bringing in about $9 million in the first quarter of 2026 compared with Paxton's roughly $2.2 million. The Republican runoff is one month away, and the winner will face Democrat James Talarico.
Cornyn also had nearly $8.2 million in cash on hand, while Paxton had more than $2.6 million. Cornyn said on primary night, "Judgment day is coming," after narrowly leading the first round of voting.
Trump and Paxton
Donald Trump said after the March 3 primary that he would decide "soon" on an endorsement, but he has still not backed either runoff candidate. Ted Cruz endorsed Paxton in 2014, and Trump endorsed him in 2022.
Paxton won his 2014 attorney general runoff over state Rep. Dan Branch by 27 points, then won his 2022 runoff over George P. Bush by 36 points. Turnout in those races fell sharply from the primary to the runoff, dropping to 5.4% of registered voters.
Texas runoff turnout
The first-quarter money race shows Cornyn with a much larger campaign operation, but Paxton has already won runoff elections after entering with an advantage built less on fundraising than on turnout and outside help. University of Texas polling showed Paxton's unfavorable rating among Republican voters falling from 22% in December 2025 to 18% in February 2026.
That shift leaves Cornyn trying to keep Paxton's liabilities in front of voters while the race moves toward a smaller runoff electorate that may also be enlarged by nine congressional Republican primaries headed to runoffs. Texans for a Conservative Majority raised about $9.5 million, while the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC took in about $2.1 million.
James Talarico race
The runoff winner will face Talarico, making the March 3 primary only the first stage of the Texas Senate contest. Cornyn's better fundraising, paired with Trump's still-absent endorsement, gives him a path to hold his edge if the runoff electorate remains broad enough to reward spending over a narrower base vote.
