Luke Evans faces a Tony Revival race as Rocky Horror Show edges Chess
"The play's the thing — but awards are nice, too." Gold Derby's Tony Talkers put luke evans in the center of an early Broadway awards fight, with The Rocky Horror Show competing against Chess for the third Musical Revival nomination spot. Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ragtime were the two clear front-runners in the category.
May 5 Tony ballots
The 2026 Tony Awards nominations will be unveiled on May 5, and these early picks point to a narrow race for the last Musical Revival slot. That makes the category one of the trickiest reads on the ballot, with voters still sorting through the season before they see the full field.
Cats and Ragtime lead
Gold Derby recruited its resident Tony Talkers to share predictions for the major categories, and both experts split the field cleanly at the top. Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ragtime were named the two clear front-runners, while Chess and The Rocky Horror Show were placed in the fight for the third spot.
That leaves Tracy Letts' Bug starring Carrie Coon on the outside in both predictions. The snub is the sharpest cut in the group, because it turns the Musical Revival conversation into a three-way lane for recognition instead of a wider open race.
Recent debuts on voters' minds
The Tony voters are filling out ballots after the recent debuts of The Lost Boys and Joe Turner's Come and Gone, while since-closed fall productions Little Bear Ridge Road and Marjorie Prime are still on minds as the season closes in on nominations. For anyone tracking the category, the practical read is simple: the top two look set, the third slot is the battle, and Bug looks the most vulnerable.
