Steve Erceg Slides to -175 as BetOnline Flags 91% Sharp Action

steve erceg has gone from a -400 favorite to -175 at BetOnline ahead of Saturday’s UFC Perth card, and the sportsbook says the move has been driven by irregular action on his flyweight fight with Tim Elliott. The liability on the bout is three times the liability of the next closest fight on the card.

Erceg and Elliott at BetOnline

Adam Burns called the move unusual, posting, “Big line move in Erceg vs Elliott, very weird. Erceg opened -400 down to -175 and dropping… Fishy?” The current market now has Erceg at -175 and Elliott at +145.

That shift came after a longer climb in the line. Erceg opened as a -285 favorite on April 22, Elliott opened at +245, and Erceg reached -600 at one point before the number turned sharply back the other way.

Sharp Money on Tim Elliott

BetOnline said more than 91% of the sharp bets on the fight have come in on Elliott, and money has been pouring in on him all week. That is the clearest reason the line has kept moving even as UFC Perth stays scheduled for 13 fights.

The fight now sits at the center of the sportsbook’s card risk. BetOnline said no proof of anything nefarious has taken place, but the size of the liability has pushed the bout ahead of the rest of the slate from a trading standpoint.

UFC Perth Card Pressure

The betting pattern lands against a UFC backdrop that has seen past cards interrupted by odd line moves. The promotion previously canceled Alexander Hernandez vs. Michael Johnson after irregular betting patterns, and the Isaac Dulgarian fight drew FBI attention after odd betting behavior and a first-round submission loss.

For bettors, the practical read is simple: the market has already moved hard on Erceg vs. Elliott, and the current price is no longer where it started. Erceg is still favored, but the size and speed of the move show where the money has gone before Saturday’s card begins.