Flavien Prat Leads 2026 Turf Classic Stakes Picks Over 5-2 Rhetorical

Jeff Hochman made flavien prat the focus of his 2026 Turf Classic Stakes picks by passing on 5-2 favorite Rhetorical. The betting preview heads into Saturday’s race in Louisville, Kentucky, with post time set for 5:39 p.m. ET and Hochman siding with a horse he says fits Churchill Downs better.

Rhetorical Heads the Board

Rhetorical enters as the 5-2 morning-line favorite for the Turf Classic Stakes, but the New York-bred horse trained by Will Walden has lost his last two starts. He still brings five wins in eight starts, a record that keeps him at the center of the race even without Hochman’s top vote.

That split matters because Hochman is not guessing from a cold resume. He has shown a profit in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races, picked Big Brown at 2-1 in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, swept the 2022 Triple Crown with Mo Donegal in the Belmont Stakes, and cashed the 2023 Preakness with National Treasure.

Mercante Fits Churchill Downs

Hochman’s top choice is Mercante, a 12-1 longshot in the field. His case for the horse is direct: "Mercante excels on the Churchill grass, having won the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes over this course last summer".

That kind of angle is the practical value in a race like this. Bettors looking beyond the favorite have to decide whether they want the most obvious horse on the board or a runner with course form and a price that gives more room for a payoff if the read is right.

Odds Around the Favorite

The rest of the market gives Hochman room to separate from the board. Test Score is 7-2, Program Trading is 4-1, Make Me King is 6-1, and Asbury Park is 8-1. Rhetorical still sits on top of the betting line, but the numbers show this is not a one-horse race on paper.

Hochman’s recent run also supports the confidence behind the pick. He had a combined 65.7% win rate across Saratoga and Del Mar during the summer 2025 racing season, which is part of why his lean away from the favorite will draw attention before the 5:39 p.m. ET post.

For anyone building wagers around the 2026 Turf Classic Stakes, the main decision is simple: follow the favorite, or follow the handicapper who is leaning on Mercante’s Churchill success instead. The board gives both paths, but Hochman has made his choice clear.