James Talarico Texas Senate Odds Hit 47 Percent on Polymarket
James Talarico texas senate odds reached 47 percent on Polymarket, while Republicans were listed at 55 percent, after Democrats had been at 30 percent on March 5. The shift comes as polling in Texas shows Talarico running ahead of both Ken Paxton and John Cornyn in separate surveys.
Polymarket And Kalshi
Polymarket’s current numbers show Democrats at 47 percent and Republicans at 55 percent in the Texas Senate race. Kalshi shows Talarico at 45 percent and Republicans at 55 percent, a narrower spread than the market showed in early March.
On March 5, Democratic chances were 30 percent and Republican odds were 71 percent. The 17-point rise in Democratic chances over just more than two months gives Talarico his strongest market position yet in a state that has not elected a Democrat in a statewide race since the 1990s.
Texas Polls April 10-20
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted from April 10 to April 20, had Talarico ahead of Paxton by eight points, 42 percent to 34 percent. The same survey showed Talarico leading Cornyn by seven points, 40 percent to 33 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Texas Public Opinion Research reached a similar result in a poll of 1,018 likely voters conducted from April 17 to April 20. That survey put Talarico ahead of Cornyn by three points, 44 percent to 41 percent, and ahead of Paxton by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Cornyn, Paxton, And The Seat
A University of Houston/YouGov poll showed Cornyn narrowly ahead by one point and Paxton up by two, which keeps the race from settling around a single polling pattern. The mix of results leaves Talarico with stronger market odds than he had in early March, but still facing Republican candidates who remain close enough in several surveys to keep the contest unsettled.
For now, the practical takeaway is simple: the market has moved toward Talarico, but the polling still varies by candidate and by survey. His 47 percent Democratic odds on Polymarket mark the highest point yet, and the next shifts will come from whichever new poll or market move changes that balance again.
