Mariano Navone Favored Over Denis Shapovalov at ATP Rome — Roman Andres Burruchaga

roman andres burruchaga heads into Thursday’s ATP Rome round of 128 as the projected winner over Denis Shapovalov, with the model giving Navone a 58% chance to advance. The match is set for 10:45 AM ET, and the same projection points to over 21.5 total games as the top play.

Navone at 58% in Rome

Dimers’ tennis model has Navone as the most likely winner in the first-round match at the ATP Italian Open. That forecast also gives him a 56% chance to win the first set, while Shapovalov carries a 53% chance to cover the +3.5 games spread.

The numbers make this more than a simple winner-pick. Navone’s edge sits at 58%, but the spread and total suggest a longer match script than a one-sided result, with over 21.5 games landing at 56% in the model.

Shapovalov and the spread

Shapovalov’s best model angle is the +3.5 games line, which the projection rates at 53%. That leaves the market split between a Navone win and a competitive set count, with the over on games slightly stronger than either side of the spread.

The top play on the match is over 21.5 total games, and the model gives that outcome a 56% chance of hitting. For bettors following the Rome opener, that puts the total ahead of the side market in projected value.

Thursday at 10:45 AM ET

The match starts Thursday at 10:45 AM ET in the ATP Rome round of 128. Odds are current at publication and can move before first serve, which leaves the total and the game spread as the clearest numbers to track before the opening points are played.

Navone owns the main edge, but the market setup leaves room for a tight opener rather than a clean breakaway. If the model is right, the match should give bettors a full set of live numbers to watch from the first ball.