European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Raises 2026 El Niño Intensity Forecast to 100%
The 2026 el niño intensity forecast changed sharply in May when the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts raised the odds of a super El Niño to 100% by November. The model now points to the strongest El Niño ever likely forming as Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and Eastern Pacific season starts May 15.
ECMWF May forecast
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts issued its May long-range forecast model after March data had shown only about a 55% chance of reaching the Super El Niño threshold by September. The newer run extends the signal into late season, giving forecasters a firmer read on how ocean temperatures could shape storm tracks, rainfall, and seasonal activity across the Atlantic basin.
The latest long-range European forecast also calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The average season has 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center, so the headline number does not signal a quiet Atlantic season even with the El Niño pattern building.
Atlantic hurricane season
A strong El Niño typically means suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic and increased activity in the Eastern Pacific. In this forecast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows Atlantic water temperatures rising to above average for most of the season, while below-average tropical activity covers most of the Atlantic Main Development Region.
Near the U.S. Mainland, the ECMWF shows near-normal activity and above-average precipitation in the northern Gulf. The same forecast points to above-average rain across the South, which matters for readers tracking seasonal rainfall rather than only storm counts.
Eastern Pacific and the South
The Eastern Pacific opens first on May 15, before Atlantic season begins on June 1, and the forecast arrives in that window. The winter months are expected to be beneficial for the Southeast, which is deep in drought, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
The friction point in the forecast is straightforward: El Niño can trim Atlantic storm odds without removing risk from the season, and the same pattern can tilt rainfall toward the southern United States later in the year. For coastal communities, inland readers, and drought-hit parts of the Southeast, the May model is not a finished answer but a stronger signal about where the season may lean and when the next shift in conditions could arrive.
