University of Barcelona study links Greenland melt to sixfold water surge
A new study led by the University of Barcelona says extreme melting on greenland's ice sheet has become far more intense since 1990, with meltwater output jumping to 82.4 gigatons per decade from an average of 12.7 gigatons between 1950 and 2023. Josep Bonsoms said the rapid transformation of the ice sheet has global environmental consequences and puts the Arctic at the centre of new strategic, economic and territorial dynamics.
University of Barcelona study
The research, published in Nature Communications, examined extreme melting events on Greenland's ice sheet from 1950 to 2023. It found the surface area affected by extreme melting has been expanding by about 2.8 million km2 per decade since 1990, while the amount of water released from those events since 1990 marks a sixfold increase.
The study used a novel classification method that combines types of anticyclonic and cyclonic air mass circulation with a regional climate model. That approach was designed to separate thermodynamic influences linked to atmospheric warming from dynamic influences tied to atmospheric circulation patterns, giving the results a tighter focus than a broad seasonal melt average.
Greenland melt hotspots
The strongest recent events are concentrated in the modern record. Seven of the ten most extreme melting events have taken place since 2000, including major episodes in August 2012, July 2019 and July 2021. Northern Greenland is now one of the regions most affected by the change.
For readers tracking the pace of change on Greenland, the study points to a shift that is no longer limited to isolated summers. Since 1990, meltwater output during extreme events has risen by 25% compared with the 1950-1975 period when the study looked at similar anticyclonic and cyclonic air mass circulation, and the increase reaches as high as 63% when all extreme events are counted together.
By the end of the century
The study's forward look is sharper still. Under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the most intense meltwater anomalies could increase by as much as threefold by the end of the century, a projection that puts added weight on every major melt season now unfolding across Greenland.
Bonsoms said that "the rapid transformation of the ice sheet not only has global environmental consequences, such as sea level rise and possible alterations in ocean circulation, but also places the Arctic at the centre of new strategic, economic and territorial dynamics."
