Rafael Jodar Holds 78% Edge Over Nuno Borges in Rome

Dimers gives nuno borges a 22% win probability for Friday's ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026 match. Rafael Jodar comes in at 78%, a wide split that leaves the model squarely on Jodar's side after 10,000 simulations.

Rafael Jodar in Rome

The matchup is the clear edge in the numbers. Dimers said Jodar is more likely to beat Borges in the Rome event, and the simulation total shows the projection is built on a large sample rather than a single run.

That 78% figure is the centerpiece for anyone following the match from a betting angle. Borges at 22% is not close to even, which gives the preview its main takeaway before the first point is played.

Dimers' 10,000 Simulations

The model ran the match 10,000 times and landed on the same direction: Jodar over Borges. The gap between 78% and 22% is the only number readers need to know to see where the forecast lands.

For tennis readers, that means the preview is less about a toss-up and more about how decisively the model leans one way. For bettors, the practical read is simple: the projection assigns most of the win expectation to Jodar, while Borges is left with a much smaller slice.

Nuno Borges' 22%

Borges' side of the forecast is the tension point in the story. A 22% win probability does not shut the door on an upset, but it does place him well behind Jodar in the model's estimate for Friday.

That leaves the prediction centered on a single question for the match itself: whether Borges can beat a number that is already built against him, or whether Jodar turns the 78% edge into the result the simulations point toward.