Gregor Kobel Leads Borussia Dortmund Into Werder Bremen - Dortmund Preview
Borussia Dortmund enter werder bremen - dortmund as -275 favorites, and Gregor Kobel is expected to start in goal when they visit Werder Bremen at Weserstadion on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Dortmund’s 21-7-5 record and 70 points put them 2nd, while Bremen sit at 8-8-17 with 32 points.
Weserstadion and the line
The market opens with a clear split: Werder Bremen are +220, the total is set at 3, and the matchup lands in Bremen, Germany. For Dortmund, the price reflects a season built on 68 goals, 49 assists, and a 34-goal difference.
Bremen bring a different profile. They have scored 37 goals, allowed 58, and carry a -21 goal differential. Their 6 clean sheets and 104 saves show how often they have needed to absorb pressure rather than control matches.
Mio Backhaus for Werder
Mio Backhaus is expected to start for Bremen, giving the hosts a goalkeeper with 2,790 career minutes, 93 stops, and 31 starting assignments. He has faced 142 shots, allowed 54 goals, and posted a 65.5% career save percentage with five shutouts.
Backhaus meets a Dortmund attack that has finished chances at a different rate. Serhou Guirassy has scored 155 goals in his professional career and arrives with a 0.62 goals per 90 rate, while the visitors have also produced 14 clean sheets and a 70.2% save rate behind Kobel.
Gregor Kobel and Dortmund
Kobel’s numbers explain why Dortmund sit where they do. He has 571 career saves in 198 starts, 54 clean sheets, a 67.4% career save percentage, and a 106-38-54 mark. This season, Dortmund have allowed 34 goals, the fewest in European soccer in the source data.
Bremen have their own pressure points beyond the record. They have 77 yellow card warnings and 5 red cards, along with an 18.0 xG figure that ranks 18th and an expected goals against number of 20.5. Jens Stage provides one of the few steady outlets with 24 career assists and 53 goals in 20,988 minutes.
The setup leaves Dortmund with the cleaner statistical case and Bremen needing a sharper game than their 0.97 points per match and 1.44 goals allowed per 90 imply. The first live edge in this preview is already in the numbers: one side has 70 points and a -275 tag, the other is trying to offset a 32-point season at home.
