Knicks Projected to Beat Cavaliers 112-105 in Game 1 — Monza Fc
monza fc points to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals, projecting a 112-105 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday at Madison Square Garden. The model gives New York a 72% chance to win, with Knicks -7.5 also rated as the top spread play.
That forecast centers on the opener at 8:00 PM ET, where the Knicks are expected to lean on Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby. Cleveland’s side runs through Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and Evan Mobley, with Mitchell projected for 26 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.
Madison Square Garden matchup
The score projection is tight enough to keep the spread in play. New York is listed at -7.5 with a 52% chance of covering, while the 217.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Brunson is projected for 25 points, 3 rebounds and 7 assists for the Knicks. That gives New York a second scoring anchor beside the frontcourt pieces expected in the lineup, and it leaves Cleveland needing Mitchell to match production from the perimeter and keep the offense from falling behind early.
Cavaliers rely on Mitchell
Mitchell’s line is the clearest individual marker in the game model. If he reaches 26 points with 5 rebounds and 5 assists, Cleveland has a cleaner path to keeping the game inside the predicted margin.
The Cavaliers are not being asked to carry the burden with one scorer alone. Harden and Mobley are part of the expected reliance group, but the projection still favors New York by seven points, which puts the pressure on Cleveland’s top options to keep pace possession by possession.
Knicks favored in Game 1
New York enters the series opener with the stronger win probability and the cleaner spread edge. The model’s 72% win rate and 52% cover chance both point to the same side, and the 112-105 scoreline leaves little room for a late run to change the pick.
For readers following the matchup, the immediate takeaway is simple: the Knicks are the projected Game 1 winner, and the model’s strongest betting angle is New York -7.5. That is the number carrying into Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden.
