Zelenskyy Warns of Oreshnik Missile Threat to Kyiv

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is likely preparing an oreshnik missile strike, with Kyiv the main target he named on Wednesday. The warning came as Ukraine moved to reinforce its northern regions and step up diplomatic pressure on Belarus.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine had identified five scenarios Russia had drawn up and had studied intelligence on offensive planning in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction. "We analysed in detail the available data from our intelligence agencies on Russia’s planning of offensive operations in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction".

Ukraine Reinforces the North

Zelenskyy said, "Our forces in this sector will be increased." Oleksandr Syrskyi added that Kyiv had data showing the Russian general staff was actively calculating and planning offensive operations from the north, while Andriy Demchenko said Ukraine had not seen movement of equipment or personnel directly at the border as of Wednesday.

Demchenko told Ukrinform news agency, "As of now, we haven’t detected any movement of equipment or personnel directly at our border, but of course, we can see the pressure Russia is putting on Belarus." That leaves Ukraine responding to a planning warning rather than a border buildup, even as the north stays under closer military watch.

Belarus and the 2022 Route

Zelenskyy also said it was "already tiresome that there is constantly such a threat to Ukraine that the Russians may at some point drag Belarus into an expansion of the war. They should understand there will be consequences for them and they will be significant." Belarus was used by Russian troops in the 2022 invasion route toward Ukraine, which is why any renewed planning from the north carries immediate weight in Kyiv.

The warning lands while Ukrainian drone attacks have forced virtually all major oil refineries in central Russia to halt or scale back fuel output in recent days. The refineries with full or partial shutdowns have a combined capacity above 83m tonnes per year, or about 238,000 tonnes per day, and they account for around a quarter of Russia’s total refining capacity.

Russia Oil Pressure

Those refineries produce over 30% of Russia’s gasoline output and about 25% of its diesel output, and Moscow has introduced a gasoline exports ban. The reduced crude exports are adding pressure to Russia’s federal budget, where oil and gas account for roughly a quarter of federal revenue.

For Kyiv, the immediate test is whether the warning about the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction translates into a new Russian move from the north or remains part of the pressure campaign Zelenskyy described. Ukraine’s forces in that sector are being increased, and Zelenskyy’s team is also pressing Belarus diplomatically as the north stays under scrutiny.