Ed Scimia Backs Cubs Over Pirates With Skenes at 7.5
Paul Skenes enters Thursday’s pirates matchup having allowed nine earned runs in 10 innings over his last two starts, and the Chicago Cubs are being backed to take advantage. Ed Scimia is taking Chicago at +140 or better and the Under at 7.5 runs at standard -110 odds or better.
Skenes’ Recent Slide
Skenes has been tagged for nine earned runs across his last two losses, a stretch that has changed the way this game is being priced. Opponents have hit 32.7% of his batted balls into the Launch Angle Sweet Spot this season, and the Pirates have played to totals of seven runs or less in five of his last six starts.
That run has put pressure on a Pittsburgh lineup that has not supported him much, even when he keeps games close. The Pirates have also hit the Under in each of Skenes’ last four starts, which lines up with the lower total attached to Thursday’s matchup.
Cubs’ Offensive Edge
Chicago has posted a.725 OPS this season and averaged 4.73 runs per game, which is enough to justify a shot at the underdog price. Colin Rea takes the mound for the Cubs with a 4-3 record and a 4.83 ERA, but he has also produced a 32.2% chase rate this year.
That gives Chicago a path if it can keep Skenes from settling in early. The Pirates rank third-worst in whiff percentage this season at 27.5%, a number that gives the Cubs more room to turn the game into a contact-and-pressure matchup rather than a duel of pure stuff.
Ed Scimia’s Bets
“I’m backing Chicago to win this game as long as I can get a premium of +140 or more.”
“I’m taking the Under at 7.5 runs if we can get the standard -110 odds or better.”
Those two picks line up with the same read on the game: Skenes has not been as sharp over his last two outings, and Chicago has enough run production to make a plus-money price attractive. If the total stays at 7.5, the safer angle is the low-scoring game that has already shown up repeatedly in Skenes’ recent starts.
For bettors watching Thursday night, the market is pointing in the same direction as the form: Chicago on the moneyline and a total of seven or fewer runs. That is the combination being played here.
