Strong El Niño Tops +2 in Old Farmer's Almanac June Forecast
The old farmer's almanac june forecast points to a strong El Niño developing in 2026, and the first signs are already appearing in the United States and Canada. Latest data shows warm anomalies in the main ENSO region, while pressure and temperature patterns across both countries are starting to shift.
The NCEP CFSv2 model shows the event exceeding a +2 anomaly, with forecasts extending through November 2026 and peaking over +4.5 in the eastern regions. That puts the current setup in the range of a very strong El Niño, with a signature similar to the strongest events seen before.
ENSO Region Warming
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the latest ocean analysis shows that warm phase building fast. The warming is being driven by westerly wind bursts and weaker trade winds, with a new round of westerly wind anomalies moving across the tropical Pacific.
That pattern has already helped develop a massive underwater warm anomaly called a Kelvin Wave. The article says the warm phase is entering a strong El Niño, and the earliest detectable effects are now showing up in global atmospheric circulation.
Walker Cell Signals
The Walker Cell is the upward and downward atmospheric motion in the tropical regions, and strong ENSO events can alter it along with broader circulation through an atmospheric bridge. The article says the first detectable changes in pressure and temperature patterns across the United States and Canada are now being seen.
For readers, that means the summer outlook is not staying locked to the Pacific. The forecast links the warming ocean to a larger weather pattern that can reach North America quickly, even before the event peaks later in the year.
November 2026 Forecast
The latest forecasts extend into fall and show ocean temperature anomalies through November 2026. El Niño events tend to peak later in the year, and this one is being watched closely because the forecast shows anomalies rising past +4.5 in the eastern regions.
If those numbers hold, the event could rival a historically record-strong El Niño. For now, the practical takeaway is that the early summer pattern is already changing, and the strongest effects may build as 2026 moves toward fall and winter.
