Michael Tubbs says Stockton cut homicides 40% with data strategy

Michael tubbs said Stockton reduced homicides by 40% during his eight years in office. He said the city used data-driven decision-making and focused deterrence to reach the people driving most violent crime.

He said 82 people were responsible for about 80% of Stockton’s violent crime, and many of them were both victims and perpetrators of shootings. Tubbs said those people had been arrested six times on average and were often on probation or parole.

South Stockton numbers

Tubbs said he spent eight years trying to change the numbers about Black Stockton. He described South Stockton as about 75% Latino and 15% Black, compared with 11% Black citywide, and said Black residents live in all six Stockton council districts.

He also said Black Stockton has historically occupied South Stockton as a place of permanence for Black residents. In the same interview, he said many Black residents work in government, transportation, corrections, healthcare, city government, the school district and the bus system.

Focused deterrence in Stockton

Tubbs described the strategy as focused deterrence, a method that uses data to identify a small number of people driving a large share of violence. He said that approach, not broad enforcement alone, was tied to the homicide decline.

He also said not enough Black-owned small businesses exist in Stockton. Tubbs said his work to prevent gun violence was what made him run for City Council, tying the public-safety effort to his political path in the city.

For Stockton residents, the takeaway is straightforward: Tubbs is pointing to a targeted violence-reduction model, not a citywide sweep, and he is using the 40% homicide drop as the proof point. The people most directly in view were the 82 individuals he said drove most of the violence, along with the neighborhoods that have lived with the consequences.