Trump Slides to 42.8% in Greater Appalachia — United States Presidential Approval Rating
Donald Trump’s united states presidential approval rating has fallen across every American Nations region in updated estimates from G. Elliott Morris, leaving him underwater even in Greater Appalachia at 42.8% approval. The figures are based on a Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll fielded May 18 and 19 and show his federation-wide support at minus 23 percent, down from minus 18 percent in January.
Morris used survey results tied to community profiles built from surveys of 12,000 individuals and precinct-level demographic data. He then applied statistical techniques to estimate Trump’s approval in each of the country’s 2,400 Public Use Microdata Areas, each of which contains roughly 100,000 adults.
Greater Appalachia
Greater Appalachia stands out because Morris’s model puts Trump at 42.8% approval there, the last regional culture the story describes as his final stronghold. That is a lower level of support than the article gives for the Deep South, at 38.1%, and the Far West, at 38.5%, even though Trump won both by double digits in the 2024 presidential election.
The updated estimate also places Trump under 35% approval in the Midlands and at 22.3% in Hawaii, which the article places in the Greater Polynesian cultural space. Those numbers show the decline is not limited to one part of the country or one type of region.
January to May
Morris’s January 14-20, 2026, national poll had already shown Trump losing support outside Greater Appalachia and the eastern parts of the Far West. The newer May 18-19 data push that trend farther, with the article saying his support has worsened over the past four months across nearly every location discussed.
The friction point for Trump’s coalition is simple: the regions that once gave him his clearest margins are now among the places where his approval has dropped into the 30s. In the source material, that includes the Deep South and the Far West, while Greater Appalachia has slipped below the level usually associated with a secure regional base.
G. Elliott Morris Model
G. Elliott Morris, who headed FiveThirtyEight until ABC shut it down last year, produced the updated local approval estimates used in the story. His model cross-referenced polling with community profiles and precinct-level demographic data to draw county-based conclusions from the American Nations framework.
For readers following Trump’s political standing, the practical takeaway is that the change is not just national. The updated estimates show a broader regional contraction, including in places that carried extra weight in 2024, and the next numbers to watch are the same regional estimates as they are updated again.
