Orange Watch - Tornado issued across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba

A tornado watch was in effect at 2:31 p.m. CDT Saturday across portions of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with Environment and Climate Change Canada warning of conditions favourable for tornado development. The orange watch - tornado also covered a severe-storm setup that could bring damaging hail, heavy rain and strong wind gusts.

The watch came as severe thunderstorms were likely across the southeastern Prairies, where forecasters said the main hazards were large hail and strong wind gusts. They said the threat of tornadoes could not be ruled out, and some storms could organize into supercells.

Southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Forecasters were watching a very favourable setup across southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba during the day Saturday. The ingredients included high storm energy, ample moisture, strong winds aloft and a trigger to start thunderstorms.

A trough was organizing in Montana and acting as that trigger. By late afternoon, thunderstorms were expected to develop and may initially become supercells.

The highest impacts were expected in south-central and southeastern Saskatchewan, including Regina and surrounding communities. Steep lapse rates supported very large hail ranging between ping pong ball-sized and tennis ball-sized.

Saturday evening setup

A surface low was expected to enter the region around 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Saturday, adding to the severe-weather setup. Training storms along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border were highly possible through Saturday evening.

That storm pattern raised the flooding threat in the border region while hail and wind remained the main hazards across the watch area. For people in the warning zone, the practical takeaway was to stay alert for rapidly changing conditions through the afternoon and evening, especially where storms could repeat over the same area.