Penny Holliday warns on Cold Blob monitoring threat
Penny Holliday said the minimal monitoring of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or cold blob, is under acute threat of being discontinued. The warning comes as scientists argue the system has been watched systematically for only two decades.
The same group said the risk leaves Europe with less direct data on a current that moves heat from the south to north in the Atlantic Ocean. They wrote that this will leave us unaware, unprotected and unprepared.
Penny Holliday and AMOC data
Holliday, with Femke de Jong and Sjoerd Groeskamp, said a handful of visionary researchers in different countries patched together individually funded projects to begin AMOC monitoring. They also said governments spend €1bn to monitor space for asteroids, but do not commit to spend a fraction of that amount to adequately monitor the AMOC threat.
Their point is operational as much as scientific: if the monitoring stops, there is no long-running direct record to compare against future changes. The authors said new studies use approximations of AMOC strength because there are no past direct measurements.
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation plays a crucial role in regulating global climate. The authors said changes in it can affect food security, coastal flooding, storms, energy demand, migration, infrastructure planning and sea level rise in Europe.
They also said the AMOC is projected to weaken enough under current climate change to radically change the weather. But they said there is little consensus on when and how fast that weakening will occur, which is why the monitoring gap matters now rather than later.
Europe and climate change
If the AMOC were to collapse, the authors said Europe would experience climate change up to 10 times faster than today. That is the consequence they put next to the current monitoring risk: a system with major consequences is being watched with limited and fragile coverage.
For readers, the immediate issue is not the collapse itself but whether the only monitoring network discussed in the piece keeps running. Holliday, de Jong and Groeskamp said losing it would leave scientists and policymakers without the direct measurements they need to track a threat that already reaches into planning for food, flooding and infrastructure.
