Hiroki Ito and Japan enter their Group F clash with Sweden in control of their own route to automatic qualification. A win or even a draw sends Japan straight through, while Sweden needs victory to take the direct place in the knockout rounds.
Japan Holds the Edge
Japan is 16th in the world and has not lost in any competition, including friendlies, since September 2025. That run includes wins over Brazil and England, which is why Japan arrives as the clear favorite even before the group table is settled.
Japan’s draw with the Netherlands kept that path intact. The point leaves the side needing only another result to avoid leaving qualification to other outcomes.
Sweden’s Narrow Route
Sweden sits 36th in the world and has already lived both sides of the group-stage ledger. It opened with a 5-1 win over Tunisia, then followed with a 5-1 loss to the Netherlands.
That split leaves Sweden with a simple task: beat Japan to take the direct route. A draw would not be enough for automatic qualification, though Sweden could still move on as one of the best third-placed teams.
Toby Cudworth’s Preview
Toby Cudworth, the Lead Editor for SI FC, laid out the qualification stakes after joining Sports Illustrated in May 2025 and bringing his background from 90min. His preview centers on the same pressure point now sitting on the match: Japan can settle the issue without needing help, while Sweden must force a result of its own.
The matchup therefore turns on one question only. Japan can qualify by keeping the game level or winning it, and Sweden has to change that script if it wants to advance directly out of Group F.
