Angels vs Mariners opened Monday, June 29, with George Kirby on the mound for Seattle and Ryan Johnson starting for Los Angeles. Seattle was projected to take the opener behind Kirby, but the matchup carried a wrinkle: the Mariners’ offense had produced only a.290 wOBA over the last week.
Kirby’s recent numbers
Kirby’s last four outings were the cleanest reason for the pick. He carried a 2.82 FIP in that span and allowed 0.82 home runs per nine innings, a profile that gives Seattle a shorter path to control if he reaches the middle innings with his command intact.
His work at T-Mobile Park this season was less extreme but still useful, with a 3.79 FIP at home. That gives the Mariners a concrete baseline for what they can expect in their own park, even before factoring in the light 8.1 mph winds and a temperature around 70°F.
Ryan Johnson’s brief run
Johnson had made only two starts since being recalled, and opponents had already posted a 40.8% hard-hit rate against him. He also allowed 1.64 home runs per nine innings, which makes the first few innings of the series opener the most exposed stretch for Los Angeles.
The Angels entered with a 1.24 FIP across their last 26 1/3 innings, so Seattle did not get a soft landing on the other side. The game still tilted toward the Mariners because Kirby’s recent run offered the steadier starting point, while Johnson’s short sample left more room for the opener to swing on a few early mistakes.
Seattle bullpen edge
Seattle’s relief group added another layer. The Mariners bullpen had a 2.33 FIP over the past week, and the club had hit the game total Under in six of its last eight games.
That combination points to a tighter opener than a wide-open score line. If Kirby works deep enough to hand off a lead, Seattle has the recent bullpen form to protect it, but the offense’s.290 wOBA over the last week keeps the margin for error thin. Mariners win the opener behind George Kirby's dominance.
