The FIFA World Cup 2026 schedule turns to Monday with Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands all in World Cup knockout stage action, each chasing a place in the last 16. Brazil meet Japan, Germany face Paraguay and the Netherlands play Morocco in three round of 32 ties.
Brazil carry the strongest recent edge in the first of those matches. They have won 11 of 14 previous meetings with Japan and lost only once, while the Opta supercomputer gave them a 57.3 percent chance of winning in 25,000 pre-match simulations. Japan took 19.7 percent of those simulations, and 23.0 percent finished level after 90 minutes.
Brazil and Japan
The match sits between two different histories. Brazil beat Japan 4-1 in their only World Cup meeting 20 years ago, but Japan beat Brazil 3-2 in Tokyo last October after overturning a two-goal deficit. That result is the cleanest reminder that the gap has not stayed fixed, even if the numbers still lean Brazil’s way on Monday.
For viewers tracking the bracket, Brazil’s target is simple: get through 90 minutes and move closer to the round of 16. The simulations show why this tie is viewed as one of the more settled ones on the schedule, even with Japan’s recent comeback win hanging over it.
Germany and Paraguay
Germany get a different kind of test against Paraguay. The teams have met only twice before, drawing 3-3 in an international friendly in 2013 and playing a last-16 contest in 2002. Opta gave Germany a 54.7 percent chance of winning inside 90 minutes, with Paraguay on 23.1 percent and 22.3 percent of simulations ending level after normal time.
Germany’s broader position is tighter than the single-match probabilities suggest. They have a 78.6 percent chance of reaching the round of 16, but only a 4.4 percent probability of winning the World Cup. That split is the sharpest number in Monday’s schedule: advancing is likely, lifting the trophy is a much steeper climb.
The Netherlands and Morocco
The Netherlands close Monday against Morocco in a World Cup meeting that will be only the second between them. The Netherlands won 2-1 in the 1994 group stage, and they have stayed unbeaten in six World Cup matches against African opposition, scoring at least twice in each of those victories.
Morocco have a different marker in front of them. They are aiming for back-to-back World Cup wins over European opponents for the first time, and Tuesday’s tie will be the Netherlands’ first knockout match against an African nation. Canada are already through after a historic first World Cup knockout victory, so the last 16 picture is starting to take shape around Monday’s results.
That wider bracket also carries a separate note from South Korea, where Hong Myung-bo resigned and left the team searching for a new coach. For Monday’s three matches, the practical focus is narrower: Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands are all playing for entry into the last 16, and the schedule gives each of them one more step to clear before the knockout field tightens again.
