Marta Kostyuk carries the edge into Thursday’s Wimbledon Women's Singles 2026 meeting with Anna Blinkova. Stats Insider’s model gives her an 83% chance to win, while TAB has her as the short-priced option in both the match and the first set.
The match is set for the second round and is scheduled to begin at 11:20pm AEST. Stats Insider ran the Blinkova-Kostyuk matchup 10,000 times, and that simulation work is the basis for the 83% figure.
Stats Insider's 10,000 runs
The projection leans heavily toward Kostyuk, but the betting market is even firmer. TAB lists Blinkova at $5.50 to win the match and Kostyuk at $1.14, a gap that leaves little room for a surprise if the price is tracking the market correctly.
That split is even sharper in the first-set market. Blinkova is priced at $4.33, while Kostyuk sits at $1.22, which shows the same expectation applied to the opening set rather than only the full match.
TAB pricing on Kostyuk
For readers comparing the model with the prices, the clean read is simple: Stats Insider likes Kostyuk to win, and TAB has made her the much shorter selection. The model’s 83% chance and the $1.14 match-winner price both point in the same direction, even though the recommendation on the betting line is framed around Blinkova at the longer price.
That is the only wrinkle worth watching here. One side of the forecast says Kostyuk should control the match, but the price structure gives Blinkova the bigger payout if the market is wrong, so the useful decision for bettors is whether they trust the model edge or the return on the outsider.
Thursday at 11:20pm AEST
The practical next step is straightforward: the match starts at 11:20pm AEST, so any wager has to be placed before first serve. With Kostyuk sitting at $1.14 for the match and $1.22 to take the first set, the numbers leave her as the clear favorite while Blinkova remains the value play if the upset lands.
