After an X1.1 solar flare on June 30, the sun fired off 10 M-class solar flares in the next 24 hours, and the activity now points toward stronger geomagnetic conditions around the July 4 weekend. People in parts of the northern U.S., including New York and Idaho, could see the northern lights if the incoming storms hold together and the skies stay dark and clear.
Tamitha Skov called the burst of activity a “Machine-gun sun” in a post on X and said more than five solar storms are on their way to Earth. She said at least three of them have “good chances” for aurora displays, with the first storm possibly arriving before 8 a.m. EDT on July 3.
NOAA Tracks Multiple CMEs
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said at least one CME from the July 1 eruptions appears to have an Earth-directed component. The agency’s latest forecast calls for moderate G2 geomagnetic storm conditions around 8-11 p.m. EDT tonight, followed by minor G1 conditions for much of July 3.
NOAA said that forecast is driven primarily by the CME launched during the June 30 X-class flare, while additional CMEs from the July 1 eruptions are still being analyzed. The agency said the combined activity could push the northern lights farther south than usual.
Earth and the Northern U.S.
The practical question for sky watchers is timing: the best window begins tonight and runs into July 3, when G2 conditions could give way to a longer stretch of G1 activity. For people in New York and Idaho, the main requirement is a clear, dark sky; lingering twilight in the northern hemisphere can make auroras harder to spot.
The forecast still depends on how the incoming CMEs interact with one another and on the orientation of their magnetic fields when they reach Earth. If those pieces line up, NOAA’s G2 forecast could be the lower end of the impact rather than the ceiling.
