Apple stock price is facing a sharper regional split after UBS said iPhone purchase intent climbed in the United States and Europe but slipped in China to roughly 15%, a second-quarter low. For Apple Inc, that leaves a key market moving the wrong way just as the company leans on the next iPhone cycle for demand.
UBS surveyed more than 7,500 smartphone users across the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Germany and Japan, and found American consumers planning to buy an iPhone in the next 12 months rose to around 20%. Purchase intent also climbed in the United Kingdom and Germany, while China fell to roughly 15%, even though UBS said China accounts for about a fifth of iPhone sales.
UBS Survey Skews Toward China
About 86% of iPhone owners said their next phone would also be an iPhone, which keeps the installed base unusually sticky even as the regional outlook diverges. That loyalty matters most where the buying signal is weakest, because China carries outsized weight in the sales mix and a small change there can move the broader demand picture more than the same swing in a smaller market.
About 24% of respondents said Apple Intelligence would prompt them to upgrade sooner, while nearly a third said it would not affect their decision at all. In June, Apple unveiled Apple Intelligence at its developer conference, but the survey suggests the feature has not yet become a broad upgrade trigger for most owners.
September Foldable Adds Pressure
Apple is widely expected to launch its first foldable iPhone at an event in September, and UBS said appetite for a foldable made by Apple was far higher than for foldable phones in general. That gives Apple a clearer product hook heading into the next upgrade cycle, but the survey also shows that the pull of new features is uneven across regions.
$296 was UBS's price target on Apple shares, above a closing price of $287.55, while the firm kept a neutral rating and said Apple's valuation was about 31 times expected earnings. If China stays near the second-quarter low while the United States and Europe keep improving, the market will have to weigh better demand signals against a stock that already prices in a lot of strength.
In September, the foldable launch becomes the next test for whether stronger interest in the United States and Europe can offset weaker buying intent in China.
