The Met Office Wales heatwave forecast has Monmouth on track for 25C for three straight days from Monday, July 6, raising the chance that Wales reaches heatwave threshold again within days. The warm spell follows a week when temperatures stayed close to average, after recent low 20C readings across Wales.
For most of Wales, a heatwave means temperatures above 25C for three consecutive days. Monmouth is forecast to meet that mark from July 6, and the Met Office says Wales will feel very warm from the start of the week.
South-East Wales warms first
Temperatures are set to start ramping up in south-east Wales on Sunday, July 5, while south and north Wales are expected to remain close to average that day. Newport, Abergavenny and Monmouth are the main places singled out for warmer conditions, with Monmouth the clearest hotspot in the forecast.
The same forecast points to high pressure dominating weather systems across England and Wales from July 6 to July 15. That pattern supports warm weather across a wider area, but the southeast is the part most likely to turn locally hot.
Monmouth and the heatwave threshold
Temperatures above 25C in Monmouth on Monday, July 6 would be the first of three consecutive days needed to meet the heatwave threshold in most of Wales. The Met Office says that threshold could be reached in Wales on Tuesday, July 7.
The forecast is less intense than the late-June spell, when temperatures across the UK rose well above 30C and hundreds of schools across Wales closed during a rare red extreme heat warning. This time, the expected warmth is shorter and not as hot, even though it may still be enough to trigger another heatwave classification in parts of Wales.
Thursday looks hottest in Monmouth
Thursday is expected to be the hottest day of the week, with highs of 27C forecast for Monmouth. For people in Monmouth and surrounding parts of south-east Wales, that leaves a short window between the start of the warm-up and the point at which the heatwave threshold could be reached.
The question now is whether the warmth stays in place long enough outside Monmouth for the rest of Wales to join it. The forecast already gives one clear answer for readers in the southeast: the hotter days begin on Sunday, and the strongest reading lands on Thursday.
