Marine Le Pen will learn on Tuesday whether the court of appeal in Paris leaves in place the punishment that could keep her out of the presidential race in 2027. The ruling is expected to settle her political future after her first-instance conviction on March 31, 2025.
That date still hangs over her. Le Pen was found guilty of misuse of public funds in the case known as the trial over European parliamentary assistants of the Front national, and she was sentenced to five years of ineligibility with immediate effect, four years in prison, two of them to be served under electronic monitoring, and a 100,000 euro fine. She said she faced “inéligibilité à vie,” a line that captured how much more than a legal dispute this had become for her supporters.
What makes Tuesday different is that the court is not revisiting a distant episode. It is deciding now whether the sanction that blocks a candidacy should stand, ease or be altered. The appeal trial took place early this year, and the prosecution asked for the same five years of ineligibility in appeal, along with four years’ imprisonment, three suspended and one year to serve. In other words, the appeal was not built around leniency. It was built around whether the first ruling was strong enough to survive a second look.
That is why the wait matters so sharply for Le Pen herself. She is not just defending a sentence. She is fighting the possibility of being prevented from standing in présidentielle 2027, a deadline that gives the ruling immediate political force. Her niece praised her tenacity, a reminder that the case has also become a test of loyalty inside the family and around the Rassemblement national.
The unresolved point is plain: Tuesday’s ruling will decide whether Le Pen remains on the path to 2027 or whether the five-year ban, or something close to it, closes that door for now. For her, the difference between those outcomes is the difference between a campaign and an ending.
