SOXL stock opened lower after Trump said the interim Iran peace deal was "over." Oil prices surged at the same time, and the pullback came as five major equity indices entered Q3 with different technical structures.
The S&P 500 was trading around 7,499 after tagging the channel top in early June and easing back. Its anchored VWAP from the April low was around 7,259, leaving the index about 3.2% above that support line.
S&P 500 at 7,499
That setup leaves the index in a narrow band between recent highs and a lower support area. SPX has also beaten what analysts penciled in for seven straight quarters, and Q2 2026 is expected to land near 23% year-on-year earnings growth.
Those earnings numbers help explain why the market has kept grinding higher even with a cooler start to Q3. The support zone matters because it shows where buyers have already defended the move since the April low, while the gap to 7,499 gives traders a clear reference point for how much room remains before that floor gets tested again.
Nasdaq and AI spending
Nasdaq was consolidating in a horizontal range beneath its highs, while the article framed the AI capital-expenditure cycle as a second source of support. The four largest hyperscalers spent a combined $410 billion on capacity last year and have guided that spending toward $725 billion this year.
That increase is large enough to keep capital flowing through the AI supply chain even if broader sentiment wobbles. The market is still leaning on that spending while it waits to see whether earnings strength can keep matching the pace of investment.
Fed and Warsh
The Fed backdrop is less accommodating. The policy rate has eased to a 3.62% midpoint, but in June the median 2026 dot moved up to 3.80%, and the cuts were pushed out to 2027.
Warsh added another layer to that picture by signaling he looks through supply-shock inflation and sees AI as structurally disinflationary. That view cuts against a Fed that is leaning against the market even as earnings beats and AI spending are still doing the work underneath it.
For investors, the practical read is simple: momentum is still being supported by earnings and AI capex, but Q3 is starting with a less forgiving rate setup and a market reacting to higher oil prices. The next test is whether that earnings-and-spending support can hold if policy stays tight and geopolitical headlines keep pushing energy higher.
