Dwayne Johnson helped launch Moana 2026 in April 2023. This week, the Disney remake reaches theaters with US opening-weekend tracking in a $50m to $85m range, a modest start for a property tied to one of the studio’s better-known recent titles.
Tim Robey put the problem bluntly: “I feel like [the remake] is just too soon after Moana 2,” and the numbers back him up. Moana 2 arrived in November 2024, finished as the third-highest-grossing film of 2024, and crossed just over $1bn worldwide, leaving the remake to compete with a much fresher memory than Disney usually likes.
Dwayne Johnson in April 2023
The live-action version was first announced by Johnson in April 2023, then Disney said in early 2024 that a nearly-finished Moana television series would be refashioned into a feature film for cinema release. That kind of reshuffle usually signals a studio trying to keep a title in play across formats, but it also means the brand has been circulating for longer than a single release cycle.
March brought the trailer, and the conversation turned fast to Johnson’s wig. Weird Al Yankovic used Instagram to turn the reaction into a joke: “We've told all the casting agents that the Weird Al biopic sequel is currently on hold, but they just keep sending in headshots.”
Moana 2 and Disney
Disney is still leaning on brand recognition, even as the remake has been described as ill-fated before opening. That is the contradiction here: a popular title, a recognizable lead, and a studio machine behind it, yet the early reaction points to audience fatigue rather than automatic turnout.
The live-action film also arrives with criticism aimed at the look itself, with ordinary-looking actors set against blurry CGI backgrounds. That is not a minor aesthetic gripe; it suggests the remake may be asking viewers to pay again for a version that feels less vivid than the animated film from 2016 and less special than Moana 2 just months ago.
US opening forecast
The $50m to $85m US forecast leaves Disney with a narrow test this weekend. At the low end, the opening would look soft for a remake tied to a major family title; at the high end, it still falls short of the kind of launch that would signal broad enthusiasm rather than brand inertia.
Whether the weak pre-release response becomes the final box-office result will be answered by the opening weekend itself, and that number now matters more than the trailer noise around Johnson’s wig.
