Spain’s 1-0 win over Portugal has done more than move them into the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It has also pushed La Roja ahead of Argentina to second in the odds to win the tournament, with France still the clear favourite after the quarterfinal field was confirmed.
Early in the group stage, France became the favourite to win the World Cup, and that position has not changed despite Spain’s latest result. But Monday’s victory over Portugal was enough to tighten the market again, with Spain now sitting at +370, just behind France at +180 and ahead of Argentina at +400.
Spain’s win changes the picture
The significance of the Spain result is clear. A 1-0 quarterfinal-round win is not the sort of scoreline that usually rewrites the odds board on its own, but in a tournament where every margin matters, it has lifted Spain above another previous winner and into a stronger position as the knockout rounds intensify.
That matters because the quarterfinals are now dominated by Europe, with six of the final eight teams from that region. Defending champion Argentina and African upstart Morocco are the other sides left standing, and the market reflects that balance of power. The top four favourites are all previous winners, while their quarterfinal opponents have never won a World Cup.
Argentina still have ground to make up
Argentina’s route to this stage has been far less straightforward. They beat Cape Verde 3-2 in extra time, and then followed that with a 3-2 comeback against Egypt after trailing by two goals for more than 75 minutes. Those performances kept them alive, but they have not helped their position in the market.
Spain, by contrast, have now banked a result that feels cleaner and more convincing in terms of tournament momentum. France remain the team to catch, but Spain’s rise to second tells its own story: the quarterfinals are here, the pressure is rising, and the odds suggest La Roja are now the main challengers to Les Bleus.
Mikel Merino was pictured as Spain moved up the betting order, a small but telling image from a night that may prove important well beyond the 1-0 scoreline against Portugal.
