Colorado State University cut its El Niño hurricane season forecast on July 8, lowering the 2026 Atlantic outlook to nine named storms from 13. The revised call points to a well below-normal season, even after years when activity has often run above average.
Phil Klotzbach on the downgrade
Phil Klotzbach said the team reduced its numbers because of the stronger chance of a powerful El Niño. He said, "We've knocked down our numbers more given the increased likelihood for a strong El Niño," and added, "This year, with the high likelihood of a strong El Niño, we don't anticipate much happening in the Atlantic."
Klotzbach also called it "a very low forecast." The last time his team forecast fewer than 10 named storms was 2015, which puts the new outlook in rare company for Colorado State.
El Niño and wind shear
The updated forecast treats El Niño as the dominant factor for the 2026 hurricane season because it is expected to drive high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Michael Lowry described that effect as ratcheting up vertical wind shear, and Colorado State said the western part of the tropical Atlantic, especially the Caribbean Sea, has seen the highest increase so far this season.
That setup pulls the outlook sharply below the typical Atlantic season, which averages 14 named storms. Colorado State now sees four fewer storms than it did in The April forecast, a cut that reflects how quickly the season’s setup has shifted.
Florida and North Carolina risk
The landfall numbers still leave the United States exposed. Colorado State forecasters put the chance of a major U.S. hurricane landfall at 17%, well below the 43% average, while the Gulf Coast sits at 10% and the East Coast at 8%.
Florida carries a 49% chance of a named storm tracking within 50 miles of the state this year, and North Carolina is at 32%. Colorado State also said the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean face a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls, while warning that any storm that does form could still be devastating.
The forecast says preparations should be made every season regardless of predicted activity. For people in Florida, North Carolina, Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the East Coast, the practical message is simple: the season may be quieter on paper, but the next storm that organizes still demands the same attention.
