The Open is not even here yet and the betting market has already drawn a line in the sand. Scottie Scheffler enters Royal Birkdale as the +550 favorite, which is exactly the sort of number that tells you how much faith the market has in a player who keeps looking like the safest elite option in golf. But the more interesting story is not the favorite. It is the cutthroat way the rest of the board is being framed, and Brady Kannon has made his position on Bryson DeChambeau very clear.
Kannon, an elite golfing handicapper, is locked into his best bets for the 2026 The Open Championship, which runs July 16-19 at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. He is also fading DeChambeau, and this is not just blind contrarianism for the sake of it. The number matters. In Kannon's view, the market is already saying plenty about DeChambeau's chances, and not in a flattering way. That is the kind of blunt read that tends to stick ahead of a major.
Why the market keeps circling Scheffler
Scheffler is the defending champion after winning The Open by four strokes over Harris English last year, and that alone explains why he sits at the top of the board at +550. When a player wins a major and then returns to the same event as the market's favourite, nobody should be shocked. The more telling part is that the gap between him and the chasing pack still feels justified rather than inflated.
Behind him, Harris English is listed at +850, Rory McIlroy at +1400, Tommy Fleetwood at +1900, Jon Rahm at +2000, Xander Schauffele at +2000 and Bryson DeChambeau at +1900. Those are the names doing most of the heavy lifting in the betting conversation, but Scheffler remains the one everyone else is chasing. That is what happens when a player keeps turning major weeks into businesslike exercises.
Why DeChambeau is the uncomfortable call
Kannon's case against DeChambeau is straightforward and, frankly, hard to ignore. He says DeChambeau has missed the cut in all three majors this season and argues that The Open may be the least suited of the four for his game. He also pointed out that DeChambeau finished 10th last year at Royal Portrush, but only after shooting 78 in Round 1 and surviving in a way that was more relief than control.
Then there is the Royal Birkdale history. DeChambeau missed the cut at The Open in 2017 at the same venue, which is not the kind of record that inspires confidence when the championship returns there in 2026. Kannon's line is blunt: aside from the distractions around DeChambeau, he simply does not believe this is the best course for his game. That is the sort of verdict bettors pay attention to, because it cuts through the noise.
He also framed the market itself as part of the story: "The number is telling us something here," he said, adding that DeChambeau is probably not drawing much attention from bettors and that the oddsmakers are not exactly encouraging faith either. In other words, the price is not just a number. It is a warning.
Why Kannon's record matters
This is not a handicapper throwing darts and hoping for a lucky bounce. Kannon said he has called eight major winners since 2013, and he is coming off a strong run in 2025, having hit Harris English at 110-1 at the Farmers Insurance Open and Matt Fitzpatrick at 15-1 for an outright winner. That does not make him infallible, but it does mean his view carries real weight in a market where plenty of people are just chasing names.
And that is the real tension around The Open this time. Scheffler looks like the obvious class pick. The rest of the market is a mixture of strong players, familiar names and a few tempting prices. But Kannon is not buying the idea that every big hitter belongs in the conversation, and he is certainly not swallowing the DeChambeau hype without a fight. For readers looking for a sharper angle before the first tee shot, that is the part worth remembering.
Matt MOLONEY has also taken a closer look at the 12-man Royal Birkdale route for The Open Championship 2026, which only adds to the sense that this is becoming a week for hard opinions rather than safe consensus. And in a championship where the defending champion is already the +550 favourite, the market has a habit of making the boldest calls look obvious after the fact.
