Bitcoin remained below $65,000 on July 9 even as Brent crude oil sat just below $76 a barrel, leaving cryptocurrency traders with little macroeconomic support. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark Fed Funds rate unchanged in June, and many Federal Reserve officials made the case for future rate hikes.
Donald Trump also added to the oil backdrop by declaring that the ceasefire is over, a move that pushed oil prices higher again. Brent had already surged after the start of the current Iran conflict on Feb. 28 and the resulting Strait of Hormuz closure.
Brent on Feb. 27 and March 30
Brent moved from $72.28 a barrel on Feb. 27 to $118.35 at its 2026 high on March 30, a 63% jump in a span of just over a month. By July 9, it had eased back to just below $76. That is the price pattern Bitcoin has been trading against.
Bitcoin has still tanked 30% in 2026 and remains 50% off its peak from last October. The usual argument for lower Brent helping Bitcoin runs through inflation pressure and rate expectations, but that argument has been weakened by June Federal Reserve policy.
Federal Reserve and M2
June left the Fed Funds range at 3.5% to 3.75%, which kept borrowing conditions tighter than traders hoping for easier policy would prefer. Many Federal Reserve officials argued for future rate hikes, so the near-term policy signal did not match the case for a stronger Bitcoin bid.
The longer-term case is different. The U.S. M2 money supply has expanded by 178% since January 2009, the same month the first Bitcoin block was mined, and that is the historical backdrop that matters more than any one day’s oil move.
For investors, the immediate read is straightforward: lower Brent alone has not been enough to pull Bitcoin back above $65,000. Until Fed Funds stops signaling restraint, the price action points to a market that still wants easier money before it gives cryptocurrency a stronger lift.
Bitcoin and July 9
That leaves the next trade centered on policy, not just oil. If June Federal Reserve guidance keeps outweighing the drop in Brent, Bitcoin is likely to keep reacting to rates first and energy prices second.
