Colorado State University cut its Atlantic hurricane season forecast to 9 named storms in its latest update, a sharper pullback from the 11 it projected in June and the 13 it forecast in April. The National Hurricane Center outlook comes as the Atlantic tropics stay quiet and Houston faces higher rain chances this weekend.
The forecasters said El Niño will be the dominant factor this season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. They also forecast a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
Colorado State University forecast
The revised call gives the Atlantic season a lower ceiling than either of the two earlier forecasts. In April, Colorado State University expected 13 named storms; by June, it had already trimmed that to 11. This week’s update lowered the total again to 9.
That change lines up with the conditions now suppressing the basin. Saharan dust is blowing off the Saharan desert and spreading between Africa and the Caribbean Sea, while sinking air is helping keep the Atlantic tropics quiet. Colorado State University said activity recorded so far is only about 10 percent of historical levels for this time of year.
Houston rain chances
For Houston, the update carries a short-term weather angle more than a storm-track one. Rain chances are expected to rise to about 50 percent each day for the weekend, with most of Houston likely to pick up 0.5 inch or less of rain.
The first part of next week, Monday and Tuesday, is expected to bring even higher rain chances. Colorado State University’s seasonal outlook still leaves about 2.5 months in the Atlantic hurricane season, so the quiet pattern now does not close the door on later changes.
Atlantic tropics
The Atlantic tropics are expected to remain quiet for the next week and possibly longer, which keeps the near-term threat low even as the season remains open. July is often a fairly low-key month for the Atlantic tropics, but the basin has not yet reached the part of the season when activity usually starts to build.
For now, the practical takeaway for Houston is simple: expect wet weather, not immediate tropical trouble, over the weekend and into Monday and Tuesday. The broader Atlantic outlook has weakened again, but the season still has time left to change course.
