The numbers say Luca Van Assche should get this done, and in a betting preview that is really the only thing that matters. Stats Insider’s model gives Van Assche a 54% chance of beating Dusan Lajovic in Tuesday’s round of 32 match at the 2026 ATP Croatia Open, a small edge rather than a landslide, but still enough to make him the more appealing side.
That is the key point here: this is not a forecast built on certainty, but on a slight lean. Van Assche is projected to come through, yet the model is not pretending this is a mismatch. Lajovic remains very much in the conversation, which is exactly why the prices are worth a look.
The market and the model
According to the figures available at the time of publication, Van Assche is listed at $1.72, while Lajovic is $2.10. There is also a $1.83 price in the mix, underlining just how tight this matchup is expected to be. In other words, the market broadly agrees with the model: Van Assche is favoured, but not overwhelmingly so.
That 54% figure matters because it separates a live tip from a blind punt. Stats Insider says its prediction is based on machine learning and data, which gives the recommendation a clear analytical frame. It is still tennis, of course, and tennis can laugh at neat percentages more often than not. But if you are looking for the side with the statistical edge, Van Assche is the one.
When the match starts
Dusan Lajovic and Luca Van Assche are scheduled to meet on Tuesday at 2:00am AEST. For readers following from Australia, that is the time to circle. The match is set for the round of 32 at the 2026 ATP Croatia Open, and the prediction points in one direction: Van Assche to win, just.
The safest conclusion is also the simplest one. This looks like a close contest, but the model gives Van Assche the nod, and at 54% he is the player to back if you trust the numbers.
