The US carried out a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran on Monday, and Donald Trump said U.S. strikes Iranian submarine base would be paired with a renewed blockade of Iranian shipping in the Gulf. U.S. Central Command said the blockade would begin at 4pm ET on Tuesday, as Trump said the Hormuz strait would stay open “with or without Iran”.
Trump’s Gulf shipping order
Trump said the US would start charging fees on ships transiting through the waterway, including a 20% fee “for any and all costs necessary” to provide security and safety for vessels. That leaves shipping operators facing a narrower route through the Strait of Hormuz even as the US says the waterway will remain open. The practical effect is immediate: any vessel already planning a transit has to price in the new fee before the Tuesday deadline, not after it.
Iran’s response and reported blasts
Iran’s top joint military command said the US had no role in determining the strait’s future and would not be allowed to intervene. Abbas Araqchi said Tehran would “forever” be of the strait. Shortly after the US military announced renewed strikes on Iran, Iranian media reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Kish, Qeshm, and Abu Musa Island.
The reported blasts were followed by a separate tanker attack claim in the same corridor. The United Arab Emirates said Iranian cruise missiles struck two Emirati oil tankers while they were transiting the southern lane of the vital energy transit route in Omani territorial waters. The UAE said the attack killed one crew member and injured eight, putting crews and insurers on notice before the blockade starts.
Hormuz strait pressure
Markets moved on the risk to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures climbed 2% to $84.98 a barrel by 0051 GMT on Tuesday, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 2.1% to $79.79; Brent crude had surged 9.6% in the previous session.
One more pressure point sits below the headline trade route. A Norwegian tanker, Stolt Magnesium, suffered an explosion of an unidentified external device at approximately 00.40am local time off the Omani coast, and MTI Network said Stolt Tankers reported the vessel was on passage in the Arabian Sea. The same corridor now carries the U.S. shipping fees, the tanker damage claims, and the uncertainty over what the renewed strikes inside Iran are hitting.
Fifty-five Iranian fishermen were also freed from custody in the United Arab Emirates after being held by the UAE’s coast guard in recent months due to “special conditions” in the region. With the blockade set to start at 4pm ET on Tuesday, shipmasters, crews, and traders still need one answer more than any other: which routes can remain open without crossing into the new fee regime or the next strike zone.
