FOX Weather is tracking tropical storms in Florida after multiple forecast models pointed to possible tropical development in the eastern Gulf later this weekend. The FOX Forecast Center says the window for development would be early next week, with a weakening cold front over the warm waters expected to spark a broad area of low pressure and stormy weather.
Britta Merwin called this type of setup “very common for this time of year” and said proximity to land remains a major variable. The FOX Forecast Center also said, “Outside of keeping an eye on the forecast updates over the next few days, there is no immediate cause for concern.”
FOX Forecast Center and the Gulf
The Exclusive FOX Weather Tropical Threat shows a low chance of development through next Wednesday, which keeps the system in the watch-and-wait category for now. The warm Gulf waters could help fuel organization, but wind shear and dry air are expected to limit how quickly the disturbance can tighten up.
Water temperatures remain above average in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast, giving the system more fuel than it would have over cooler water. That same forecast, though, also has to compete with the hostile winds and dry air that have helped keep the Atlantic quiet so far.
Tropical Storm Arthur on June 17
The setup comes after Tropical Storm Arthur formed along the Texas coast on June 17, leaving the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with one named storm so far. The next named storm would be Bertha, but the current forecast does not yet say whether the eastern Gulf disturbance will reach that point.
For people along the Gulf Coast, especially Florida, the practical takeaway is to keep checking forecast updates over the next few days. The question that still matters most is whether the Gulf disturbance can organize before it moves too close to land.
