Royal Birkdale is shaping up as a severe and potentially chaotic test for The Open 2026, with parched, heatwave-hit ground expected to make control difficult and reward imagination as much as power.
That is the clear message from Rory McIlroy, who has seen enough of the course to know this championship could take on a very different look if the wind joins the baked, firm turf already on display on the Sefton coast.
McIlroy sees a course that can be attacked
McIlroy was back at Royal Birkdale on Monday after a scouting visit weeks earlier, and the return confirmed what many around the venue had been expecting: the ground has dried to a crisp. In his words, it is “as linksy as links gets”.
That matters because the Open often becomes more open-ended when the turf is firm and the bounces start to run. Instead of a course that simply accepts the shot hit at it, Royal Birkdale now looks capable of producing awkward angles, quick run-offs and the sort of unpredictability that can reshape a leaderboard over four days.
A different kind of Open test
McIlroy said he can “play the course a little more aggressively than I could”, adding that he is “excited by that possibility” while still stressing that it remains “a great test”. That is the balance at the heart of this championship: opportunity and danger at the same time.
Royal Birkdale’s conditions are a reminder that The Open is not decided only by form. It is decided by adaptability, patience and the ability to stay in the tournament when the course stops behaving in predictable fashion.
History suggests Birkdale can change quickly
The venue has produced dramatic swings before. In 1976, Seve Ballesteros held a 54-hole advantage at Royal Birkdale before a Sunday 74 and Johnny Miller’s surge ended his bid. This time, the baked surface may create a similar sense that no lead is safe if the conditions keep hardening.
There is also a modern precedent for scoring when the turf gives way. Branden Grace’s major record round of 62 at Royal Birkdale came nine years before this championship, underlining how quickly the course can transform when everything aligns.
For McIlroy, the course will also carry emotional weight. He was edged aside at the 2023 US Open at a burnt Los Angeles Country Club and came agonisingly close again at the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst, so the difference between control and chaos is one he knows well.
The 154th Open now looks set to be decided not just by quality, but by who can read the ground best. At Royal Birkdale, that may be the biggest challenge of all.
