Pierce Son Coody found the projected cut line at +1 during Friday’s Round 2 at Royal Birkdale. Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman were all in danger of missing the weekend.
The cutoff mattered because only the top 70 golfers and ties after 36 holes advance at the Open Championship. A live model from Data Golf gave the +1 line a 53.3% chance of holding, a 14.3% chance of rising to +2 and a 31.7% chance of falling to even par.
Royal Birkdale and the weekend line
The morning wave left all golfers at +1 or better safely inside the moving line at Royal Birkdale. Dry conditions and minimal wind in England were expected to create more scoring chances, but the course still carried firm and fast fairways and greens, with rough and deep bunkers ready to punish mistakes.
That mix put several past major winners in an unusual position early in the 2026 Open Championship. Rory McIlroy entered as the two-time defending Masters champion, Jordan Spieth’s last major win came in 2017 on the Royal Birkdale course, Wyndham Clark was coming off a U.S. Open win, and Brian Harman had won the Open three years ago.
Justin Rose at Royal Birkdale
Justin Rose had an added layer of pressure at Royal Birkdale. He is one of the hometown favorites, and he first burst onto the professional golf scene there in 1998 as a 17-year-old amateur.
That history made his spot near the cut line more than a simple scoreboard story. McIlroy, Spieth, Rose, Clark and Harman were all trying to stay inside a cut that would decide who returned for the final two rounds.
Data Golf and the cut forecast
The live model from Data Golf pointed to a narrow range of outcomes, with +1 still the most likely finish when Friday’s Round 2 was underway. A move to +2 would have eased the line for anyone sitting on the bubble, while a drop to even par would have tightened the race for the last weekend places.
For readers following the leaderboard, the important number was the one set after 36 holes: top 70 golfers and ties move on. Which golfers ultimately finished above that line after Round 2 became the answer that mattered most once Friday’s scoring settled.
