The National Hurricane Center’s hurricane tracker put an area of thunderstorms near Florida at a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within seven days on Friday, July 17. Heavy rain was still expected along the Florida Gulf Coast through Monday even if the system never organized.
Forecasters also gave the system a 10% chance of forming within 48 hours. For people in Tampa Bay, the broader forecast called for 2 to 3 inches of rain into Monday, with up to 7 inches possible in some spots.
Weather Prediction Center and Tampa Bay
Austen Flannery, a meteorologist with the Tampa Bay NWS office, said the rain could create some urban flooding because storm water systems can only take so much water each hour. He added that breaks in the rain would keep the threat pretty low and said some higher totals shown in models were not realistic or reasonable.
Flannery said, "There could be some urban flooding because there is only so much capacity that storm water systems can handle per hour but there will be breaks in the rain and if we get those breaks the threat will remain pretty low". He also said, "Is it possible to see 10 inches over seven days, sure."
North Florida and the Big Bend
Wright Dobbs, a NWS meteorologist in Tallahassee, said the system could push heavier rainfall into North Florida and the Big Bend if it stayed closer to shore or farther north. He said, "If it’s closer to shore or farther north, that could bring some heavier rainfall amounts to North Florida and the Big Bend".
Flannery said, "Our soils can handle a lot of water so there’s not a super big concern there." That fits a region that had already been dry, even two months deep into the wet season that usually runs from mid-May through mid-October.
July 16 drought report
A U.S. Drought Monitor report issued July 16 showed 16% of Florida in extreme drought and nearly 60% in moderate to severe drought. Only 7.5% of Florida had no drought, and Tampa Bay, the Big Bend region and a stretch of Everglades were described as the most parched areas.
Dobbs said, "That’s one thing I want to bring attention to. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system." The National Hurricane Center’s 30% seven-day chance leaves room for the thunderstorms to stay disorganized, but the rain forecast already carries the practical concern for flooding and repeated downpours through Monday.
