An area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf near Florida is driving tropical storm weather in Florida this weekend, and it could organize further before early next week. The setup has already been enhancing thunderstorm activity over the Florida peninsula, with locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible in the hardest-hit spots.
Up to 5 inches could fall from west-central Florida to the Big Bend, with the heaviest downpours most likely in northern and central Florida. The threat also reaches the northern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas, where locally soaking rain could spread as the system moves and changes shape.
Florida peninsula thunderstorms
Computer models suggest the low could become better developed throughout the weekend. If it can sustain thunderstorms and stay offshore, it could become a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Bertha by early next week.
The National Hurricane Center said the hurricane hunters could investigate the system on Sunday. That puts the next look at the disturbance squarely in the middle of the period when it is expected to strengthen.
Warm Gulf water
Water in the northeast Gulf and off the Southeast coast is warmer than average, and temperatures as high as the upper 80s are available to fuel thunderstorms. That is the background for the forecast, even as the system remains at an early stage.
The source also says there is not too much to be concerned about for now, but the same setup could still become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Bertha. For people in Florida, the practical issue is less about the name and more about the rain band that could set up from west-central Florida to the Big Bend, where urban areas face the highest flash-flood risk.
Big Bend rainfall
The most direct step for readers is to treat the rain forecast as the main hazard. The system may stay weak or improve enough to be named, but either way the heavier downpours could arrive first in northern and central Florida and then broaden toward the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas.
Will the low stay offshore long enough to organize, or will it drift close enough to keep the thunderstorms broken up? Sunday’s investigation by the hurricane hunters should give the clearest read on that question, and the answer will shape whether early next week brings only heavy rain or a stronger tropical system.
