Bryan Norcross says the tropical storm forecast in Florida points first to heavy rain on the west coast of Florida starting today. A non-tropical system is expected to slowly form in the northeastern Gulf tomorrow, with rain continuing into next week.
Bryan Norcross and Florida
Norcross, a FOX Weather meteorologist, said, "We’ll keep an eye on it." The National Weather Service has flagged two areas for possible tropical development, one near West Africa and another along the Gulf Coast, but the system closer to Florida is still expected to behave more like a rainy Gulf low than a quick tropical spin-up.
Heavy rain is expected along the west coast of Florida beginning today, and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase across Florida and surrounding areas. Drought conditions persist across the western part of the peninsula, so the first rounds of rain will matter most where the ground has been driest.
National Hurricane Center outlook
The National Hurricane Center puts the tropical development odds in the low category. Early next week, the low-pressure system has only a slight chance to drift over very warm Gulf or ocean water, the setup that would make tropical depression formation more likely.
Computer forecast models mostly keep the system in the Gulf and drifting west or northwest along or over the Gulf coast. The highest odds from the models are that strong upper winds will stretch it out, leaving unsettled weather along the coastal South and Florida instead of a compact tropical center.
Sunday to Tuesday
Enhanced storminess is expected from the northern Gulf Coast across much of the Florida peninsula and possibly to the Georgia and Carolina coast from Sunday to Tuesday. A disturbance that moved off Africa a couple days ago is also still being watched by the National Hurricane Center, but it is plowing into Saharan dust and upper winds will soon become too hostile for development.
That leaves Florida with the more immediate problem: a wet stretch that starts today, builds into next week, and could bring repeated downpours to the west coast before the system either stays weak or gets pulled apart by wind.
