Bryan Norcross said the Florida hurricane forecast now centers on heavy rain for the west coast of Florida starting today and continuing into next week. The non-tropical system is expected to slowly form in the northeastern Gulf tomorrow, but the National Hurricane Center puts its odds of tropical development in the low category.
Bryan Norcross on Florida rain
"The non-tropical system that's expected to slowly form in the northeastern Gulf tomorrow will bring some heavy rain to the west coast of Florida beginning today and continuing into next week," Norcross said. He added that the National Hurricane Center puts "the odds in the low category."
The system is expected to increase thunderstorms across Florida and surrounding areas, with drought conditions still persisting across the western part of the peninsula. The heaviest period is expected to run from Sunday to Tuesday, when the enhanced storminess peaks across much of Florida.
National Hurricane Center Gulf outlook
The National Weather Service has flagged two areas for possible tropical development, one near West Africa and another along the Gulf Coast. For Florida, the more immediate issue is the Gulf disturbance, which computer forecast models keep in the Gulf and drift west or northwest along or over the Gulf coast.
Early next week, the low-pressure system could move over very warm Gulf or ocean water, but the strongest model consensus says strong upper winds will stretch it out and keep it in an unsettled weather pattern over the coastal South and Florida. That would leave much of the Florida peninsula under a prolonged run of storminess rather than a quick burst of rain.
West Africa and the Atlantic
The broader Atlantic pattern has other systems moving too. The National Hurricane Center is still watching a disturbance that moved off Africa a couple days ago, but it is running into Saharan dust and soon will face upper winds that are too hostile for development. Outside the Cabo Verde Islands, there is no threat to land from that system.
Elida is almost a hurricane and will soon run into cooler water and weaken without any effect on land except big surf in Hawaii. Fausto is likely to form in the big red development zone shown by the National Hurricane Center, then strengthen and die over cold water after following Elida. On average, the second named storm of the season forms on July 17.
For Florida, the immediate next step is the rain. The farther west the system stays, the longer the west coast and the rest of the peninsula stay in that stretch of enhanced storminess, with the heaviest rain still most likely to build in from today through next week.
