Iris Seaton said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its September-November 2026 Old Farmer's Almanac fall weather outlook on June 18, giving North Carolina a fresh look at fall temperature and precipitation odds. The forecast uses three-month probability maps, and it points to different patterns inside the state rather than a single statewide call.
In Western N.C., temperatures are 33-40% likely to be above average. Most of North Carolina has equal chances for above, near and below normal precipitation, which leaves rain expectations less tilted than the temperature outlook.
NOAA and The Climate Prediction Center
The Climate Prediction Center issued the seasonal outlook for the fall months under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Its predictions for September-November 2026 were released on June 18, and the maps show probabilities for above or below-average temperatures and precipitation instead of a simple yes-or-no forecast.
Much of the South and Southeast are likely to be warmer than average, with NOAA predictions ranging between 33% -60% likelihood. In parts of the central and northern U.S., the outlook gives equal chances for above, near and below normal temperatures.
Western N.C. precipitation split
The precipitation picture is narrower in one part of the state. In a small portion of Western N.C., chances of above-average precipitation are placed at 33-40%, while most of North Carolina stays in the equal-chances category.
That split leaves people in North Carolina with two different signals to watch: warmer-than-average odds in Western N.C. and a precipitation forecast that stays closer to neutral across most of the state. NOAA’s three-month format is built for that kind of planning, because it shows where the odds lean without promising a specific wet or dry month.
Fall begins Sept. 22
Tuesday, Sept. 22, marks the autumnal equinox and the beginning of fall in the Northern Hemisphere, but NOAA’s outlook covers September-November 2026 as a full season. The source does not say how the NOAA outlook differs from the Old Farmer's Almanac 2026 fall prediction.
For readers in North Carolina, the practical takeaway is simple: the state is not headed into a uniform fall pattern. Western areas carry the strongest signal for above-average temperatures, while most of the state still sits near equal odds for precipitation outcomes across the season.
