The UK is heading into another mostly dry spell after three widespread heatwaves this summer, and readers asking, "Will there be another heatwave coming?" are looking at at least five more days with no significant rainfall. High pressure is expected to stay in charge through the rest of this week.
Rain-bearing fronts may reach the UK from the north-west over the weekend, but the places that need water most in the south and east may get little or none if those fronts lose strength as they move south.
England, Wales and eastern Scotland
Summer so far has been exceptionally hot and dry across much of the UK. England, Wales and eastern Scotland have been the driest areas over recent weeks, while areas of northern and western Scotland have had more than average rainfall for the first half of the summer.
Up to the middle of summer on 15 July, parts of eastern and north-eastern England had received just 26% of their expected summer rainfall. Wisley in Surrey has seen 33 consecutive dry days, and central England has recorded the longest run of dry days since 1995.
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
The UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology says flash droughts are likely to become more frequent and more intense, using the words: "likely to happen more often, and be more intense". That warning sits alongside the fact that rainfall across the UK as a whole has been below average this summer.
The dry spell is developing more slowly than the one that led to drought across much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland last summer. Heavy rainfall during a very wet autumn and winter recharged aquifers, rivers and reservoirs before this summer began, so the ground and water stores started from a better position.
Northern Ireland and Scotland
Through the weekend, most of the rain is likely to fall across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. A few midweek showers are possible near coasts in south-east England and East Anglia, as well as northern Scotland, but summer thunderstorms are also possible.
For people in the south and east, the immediate outlook is simple: little useful rain is on the way this week, and the weekend systems may weaken before they reach the areas already running driest. How long the warm, mainly dry pattern lasts after that is the part still waiting on the weather to decide.
