The first round at the 3M Open did not create much separation, and that is exactly why Michael Brennan still looks interesting in the betting market. With 25 golfers sitting within five strokes of the lead after Thursday, the leaderboard is crowded enough that a single hot round can move a player into contention quickly. In that kind of setup, a Top 20 ticket can carry more value than it might on a more stretched-out board.
Ben Kohles set the pace with a 9-under 62 and took a two-shot lead, but the bigger takeaway for Brennan backers is that the path to a respectable finish is still wide open. Brennan was listed at -138 for a Top 20 finish after the opening round, and that number reflects the idea that he does not need to win the tournament to justify the play. He only needs to stay in the mix over the next three rounds.
Why Brennan fits this kind of test
The case for Brennan starts with the type of courses where he has shown he can compete. He has been described as a player whose best results tend to come on layouts that reward strong driving and separation off the tee. That matters at TPC Twin Cities, where controlling the ball well enough to create scoring chances can matter more than simply grinding out pars.
His short career already gives the market a few examples to work with. Earlier in the season, Brennan finished T26 in Puerto Rico. In 2025, he also posted a T18 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and his lone top-10 finish came at the Charles Schwab Challenge. That is not a massive résumé, but it does show a golfer who has already produced on different stages when the shape of the course has suited him.
The other piece is the price. At -138, the Top 20 market is not asking Brennan to do something extreme. It is asking him to stay close enough to the first-page range in a field that has not separated itself after one round. In a tournament where Ben Kohles is only two clear and the rest of the board is still bunched, that kind of number can be easier to defend than a more aggressive finish market.
There is, of course, always risk in leaning on a betting number after just 18 holes. A crowded leaderboard can just as easily tighten the squeeze on mid-tier finish props, especially if the front-runners keep posting low scores. But the basic logic here is straightforward: Brennan has shown enough in limited sample size, and this course profile is close enough to his strengths, to make the Top 20 line look playable.
That is why the recommendation remains Michael Brennan Top 20 at -138. It is not a bet built on hype. It is a bet built on fit, context and a leaderboard that still has room to move.
